Mastering the Markets: Jeremy Siegel’s Insights for Long-Term Wealth Creation
Bel Air | June 26, 2023
In the inevitably volatile global economy, portfolio diversification will always be paramount to ensure long-term wealth. On June 7, 2023, Bel Air Investment Advisors hosted an event featuring economist and professor Jeremy Siegel, who covered this idea in great depth.
For decades, Siegel has had his pulse firmly on the financial macro environment. He is an emeritus professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a frequent contributor to financial news programs and publications including CNBC, Fortune, and Yahoo! Finance.
Throughout his presentation, Siegel offered his insights into varying prospects in both traditional and alternative markets worldwide. He presented these ideas in the context of today’s most pressing current events and economic indicators. Here is a glimpse into what Siegel had to say.
Macro-Economic Outlook: Understanding Inflation
Siegel shed light on the factors influencing inflation. He provided important historical context, explaining that the post-2008 Global Financial Crisis stimulus measures did not result in high inflation as the dollars injected into the economy were not incorporated into the M2 supply of money. In contrast, the influx of dollars during the COVID-19 pandemic, due to government spending increases, led to inflationary pressures. Siegel suggested that current inflationary data is likely past its peak, and forward-looking data should guide monetary policy decisions.
Domestic Equities: Favorable Long-Term Prospects
Siegel reinforced the importance of a long-term perspective when investing in equities. Contrary to their short-term volatility, and according to Siegal, stocks have proven to be an excellent hedge against inflation over extended periods of time. While short-term earnings should be considered for investors with a shorter time horizon, valuations play a dominant role in long-term returns. Notably, stocks were not perceived to be overvalued when compared to their historical levels, which should support a range of returns between 6 and 7 percent after inflation making domestic equities a trusted long-term inflation hedge.
International Equities: Emerging Markets and Global Diversification
Siegel regards global diversification as a beneficial strategy in portfolio construction, given that most of the world’s financial markets are reemerging post-COVID-19. Siegel identified India as the strongest emerging market economy among Brazil, China, Russia, and India. Additionally, he emphasized that today’s broader emerging market equities are attractively priced compared to historical levels.
Fixed Income: Rebounding From 2022
While bonds are generally considered a hedge against stock market volatility, Siegel noted that during periods of Fed tightening to combat inflation, bond performance may be adversely affected. He explained that the poor performance of fixed income in 2022 can be directly attributed to the Fed’s actions and the rising interest rate environment. Siegel highlighted that bonds that do not adjust with inflation are not as effective as equities in hedging against inflation unless investors opt for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which offer lower yields.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Labor Displacement
Regarding the AI boom that has upended virtually every sector of the economy, Siegel cautioned that it is still too early to determine if AI is “overhyped.” While recent stock price increases in the AI sector have been supported by real earnings, the full extent of labor displacement resulting from AI technology breakthroughs remains uncertain. However, Siegel believes that AI will very likely lead to cost reductions and shifts in the labor market.
Alternatives: Private Equity and Real Estate
Siegel discussed the benefits of private equity for investors with a long-term investment horizon and no immediate liquidity needs. He also noted that REIT investing, while more volatile than equities, has provided returns comparable to the S&P 500 over the past 50 years, making it a valuable alternative asset.
Jeremy Siegel’s presentation provided attendees with valuable insights, breaking down a myriad of themes that contribute to the global economy and weigh heavily on the minds of investors. Siegel’s extensive knowledge shone through fact-based perspectives on various asset classes and global markets.